In June 2011, President Obama announced that the US would begin
withdrawing military forces from Afghanistan
and transferring responsibility for security to the Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF). The US goal is to be substantially out of
Afghanistan by 2014, with ANSF responsible for the entire country. The
implementation plan for 2012 has been publicized over the past nine
months and is recapped below. The plan for 2013 is now emerging; what is
known is summarized here for the first time. The plan for 2014 is still
speculative.
The plan for 2012
Starting this spring, the US will draw down its troops from the
current 90,000 to 68,000 by October 2012. Essentially, the surge of US
forces deployed to Afghanistan in early 2009 is being withdrawn.
As the withdrawal proceeds, the ANSF is expected to
assume leadership for security operations in a large portion of the country. By the end of 2012, the areas of Afghan responsibility will contain
about 50% of Afghan's population.
This will become a significant test of ANSF capabilities, and will be
an important indicator of the ANSF's ability to continue to expand its
areas of responsibility into 2013.
The ANSF will reach its end state goal of
352,000 troops by October 2012
and then stop growing. Significant shortfalls in quality,
organizational structure, and capability will still exist, however. The
US will deploy a large contingent of military trainers and advisers to
Afghanistan this summer to address these issues.
The plan for 2013
The plan for 2013 is currently being developed. The final version
will be presented for approval at the NATO summit in Chicago in May.
While still incomplete, portions of the plan have been disclosed or can
be deduced. According to
The Guardian,
Obama described the next phase of the transition as follows: "This
includes shifting to a support role next year, in 2013, in advance of
Afghans taking full responsibility for security in 2014. We're going to
complete this mission, and we're going to do it responsibly."
The most significant element of the plan is that
US and ISAF forces will stop conducting combat operations in
late 2013. The ANSF will then be responsible for executing all combat operations in Afghanistan.
Security responsibility for additional areas of Afghanistan will be
transferred to the ANSF during 2013. Perhaps 75% of Afghan's population
will be living in areas under ANSF security leadership by the end of
2013. These areas will include substantial portions of the northern,
western, and southern regions. Due to the stronger Taliban organization
in the eastern region, however, it is likely to lag behind.
The size of the
ANSF will be maintained at 352,000 troops.
US and ISAF mentoring and advising teams will concentrate on
improving the quality of existing troops. Organizational development
will focus on standing up support functions that are currently being
performed by US and ISAF units.
The number of US troops to remain in Afghanistan during 2013 is still
being decided, but it appears that three options are being considered.
According to a
New York Times report, the three options are:
- A drawdown from 68,000 to 58,000 troops by the end of 2012, with a
further drawdown to between 38,000 and 48,000 by June 2013. This would
be a continuation of the current policy of gradual drawdown. Obama has
stated that he prefers a gradual drawdown. Therefore, this is the most
likely option.
- Maintaining 68,000 troops through the end of 2013. This is
the US military commanders' preferred option since it maintains US force
levels through the summer fighting season in 2013. However, US military
commanders had previously wanted to maintain 90,000 troops through the
end of 2012, and that plan was rejected last year. So, maintaining
68,000 troops in 2013 is probably a less likely option.
- A large and rapid drawdown, perhaps to 20,000 troops, by the
end of 2013. This would leave only Special Operations Forces,
counterterrorism forces, military trainers, and some support and
security staff in Afghanistan. This is Vice President Biden's preferred
option. But this option also was considered and rejected for 2012. And
Obama has stated that a rapid drawdown was not his preferred option,
either. Therefore, this too is an unlikely option.
The plan for 2014
The plan for 2014 is much less clear. It will be highly dependent on the post-2014 plan, which is still in
the early stages of negotiations with the Karzai administration. However, assuming a deal is reached,
a 2014 plan is likely to include the following elements.
The US force level will drop to between 10,000 and 20,000 troops.
They will consist of Special Forces, counterterrorism forces, and
military training personnel. They will be deployed to a small number of
bases around the country. US/ISAF troops will continue their training of
ANSF soldiers. Counterterrorism forces will concentrate mostly on
high-value targets.
The
ANSF will be responsible for security operations
for all of Afghanistan, including army and police functions. The ANSF
will be maintained at 352,000 troops. It is possible, however, that
plans will be put in place to begin cutting the number to 230,000 troops
starting after 2014.
Washington Time
Kabul Time
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