Kismayo Hasn’t Fallen Yet; Even If It Had, It Wouldn’t Be the End of the Shabab

from the "Inside The Shabab Insurgency" blog
Posted on September 28, 2012

In the early hours of the morning today, reportedly mostly Somali forces – according to Somali sites – were dropped by Kenyan landing ships on the beaches on the outskirts of Kismayo, the southern Somali port city that is the main target of the Kenyan war against the Shabab.

Some Somali sites report that the amphibious force is in the hundreds, but whatever their number, one thing is clear: they have not taken Kismayo contrary to what most news sites are parroting.

The source of the false news that Kismayo had fallen was a Kenyan army spokesman, Cyrus Oguna who had said that the city had “fallen with minimum resistance”. It is easy to jump the gun when, you know, you are not the one really shooting the gun.

As I have written before, losing Kismayo is not such a big deal to the Shabab: they may actually end up making more from discreet “Jihad donations” that they will collect from businesses in the region once they are forced to fully withdraw than from the port itself.

Kismayo is the second biggest city in southern Somalia, after Mogadishu. Holding it has more of a psychological effect than anything.

The battle for Kismayo is not the decisive battle that would decide the fate of the Shabab in southern Somalia, and it is not their “last stronghold” as some news sites report. The Shabab control another port city, Barawe, and many important towns in south and central Somalia. Simply put: the Shabab can drive from Kismayo all the way to near Galka’yo in central Somalia without going through enemy territory. How is that for a “last stronghold”?

it's not finished yet, read more on the blog:
"Inside The Shabab Insurgency"